Why you need to dismantle your poker game (part 5 of 5): The importance of odds

The final component of your retooled game will be; knowing the odds. At the core of every poker decision is math, so odds are of the utmost importance. Even when determining if a player is bluffing you look at the chance of him bluffing, and compare that with the pot odds you are receiving to see if you should call.

There are certain odds you need to know:

1. Your outs and your percentage to make your hand with one or two cards to come. This is crucial, and far too many players overlook it -they consider it amateur hour, and therefore unnecessary- and it costs them dearly. You need to have the odds of you making your hand (with one and two cards to come) committed to memory -from 1 out to 20 outs- if you don’t, stop reading and come back when you have it memorized.
2. Your chance of flopping a set. This is even more important in No Limit games, where you will be set-mining: Your chance of flopping a straight draw, and completing it by the river: Your chance of flopping a flush draw, and completing it by the river. These all fall into the implied odds category, which I will discuss a little later on.
3. Extra outs. You should also be cognizant of long-shot draws that add to your holding. A couple examples are: gut-shot straight draws, and running straights and flushes. These long-shots are capable of turning folds into calls, and if you’re not aware of them you’re making a mistake.

There are also odds that are good to know: What are the chances of an Ace flopping if you have KK? What are the odds of an Ace, King or Queen flopping when you hold Jacks? How often will I flop two pair? How often will someone have AA when I have KK?

All of these questions can be answered by a good poker player: A bad poker player will usually answer you to, “who cares!” Make sure you’re able to answer these questions.

If knowing the odds is a science, calculating implied odds is am art. Implied odds rule the big bet world (no limit and pot limit games).When it comes to implied odds in big bet poker there are three criteria that will come into play:

• Stack size
• Opponent’s play
• Table image

Stack size is your jumping off point when determining your implied odds. After all, you can only win what you (or your opponent) have on the table. Therefore, knowing the stack sizes will give you the maximum your implied odds can be.

One mistake too many players make is assuming they will always stack-off their opponent. In most cases you will be hard pressed to win an opponent’s entire stack (especially if you have over 100BB). You need to look back at your opponent’s play to see how much money he may lose post-flop: Which leads me into our second criteria.

The type of opponent(s) you are facing is another valuable piece of information. Does your opponent never fold a hand he raises with pre-flop? Is your opponent tight, and likely to fold to any pressure post-flop? Does your opponent stack-off with top pair or less? These are all questions you need to consider when evaluating your implied odds.

Your image is the final factor in determining your implied odds. If you haven’t played a hand in three hours, it will be difficult for you to win a big pot against an opponent. On the other hand, if you’ve been caught bluffing, or have been involved in more than your fair share of pots, it’s more likely you will get paid off. This is why you need to occasionally mix up your play, so you’ll get paid off when you have a hand.

When you put these three pieces together you will get a better idea of what you can expect your implied odds to be.

There you have, a brand new strategy to master that focuses on the basics. Remember, build your foundation first.

Previous entries in this series:

• Part 1: An introduction to Systemantics
• Part 2: Hand attributes
• Part 3: Proper use of aggression
• Part 4: Positional advantages and disadvantages